Thursday, December 1, 2011

Misleading Economic Data: Growth Minus Inflation Equals?

The government and media constantly reports economic data, including growth and inflation data.  But what happens if they are added up?

For example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, currently estimates:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Out of the other side of its mouth, the government estimates the current annual rate of inflation is about 3%, as reported via, e.g., http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Even if one believes these government reports, which no one should, 2% growth rate minus 3% inflation rate does not equal economic growth--it equals economic contraction.







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